Something big is happening.
Think back to February 2020.
If you were paying close attention, you might have noticed a few people talking about a virus spreading overseas, but most of us weren’t paying close attention.
The stock market was doing great, your kids were in school, you were going to restaurants and shaking hands and planning trips.
If someone told you they were stockpiling toilet paper, you would have thought they’d been spending too much time on a weird corner of the internet.
Then, over the course of about three weeks, the entire world changed.
Your office closed, your kids came home, and life rearranged itself into something you wouldn’t have believed if you’d described it to yourself a month earlier.
I think we’re in the this-seems-overblown phase of something much, much bigger than COVID.
I’ve spent six years building an AI startup and investing in the space.
I live in this world, and I’m writing this for the people in my life who don’t.
My family, my friends, the people I care about who keep asking me, so what’s the deal with AI?
And getting an answer that doesn’t do justice to what’s actually happening.
I keep giving them the polite version, the cocktail party version, because the honest version sounds like I’ve lost my mind.
And for a while, I told myself that was a good enough reason to keep what’s truly happening to myself.
But the gap between what I’ve been saying and what is actually happening has gotten far too big.
The people I care about deserve to hear what is coming, even if it sounds crazy.
I should be clear about something up front.
Even though I work in AI, I have almost no influence over what’s about to happen, and neither does the vast majority of the industry.
The future is being shaped by a remarkably small number of people, a few hundred researchers at a handful of companies.
OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and a few others.
A single training run managed by a small team over a few months can produce an AI system that shifts the entire trajectory of the technology.
Most of us who work in AI are building on top of foundations we didn’t lay.
We’re watching this unfold the same as you.
We just happen to be close enough to feel the ground shake first.
But it’s time now.
Not in an eventually we should talk about this way.
In a this is happening right now and I need you to understand it way.
I know this is real because it happened to me first.
Here’s the thing nobody outside of tech quite understands yet.
The reason so many people in the industry are sounding the alarm right now is because this already happened to us.
We’re not making predictions.
We’re telling you what already occurred in our own jobs and warning you that you’re next.
For years, AI had been improving steadily.
Big jumps here and there, but each big jump was spaced out enough that you could absorb them as they came.
Then in 2025, new techniques for building these models unlocked a much faster pace of progress.
And then it got even faster and then faster again.
Each new model wasn’t just better than the last.
It was better by a wider margin.
And the time between new model releases was shorter.
I was using AI more and more, going back and forth with it less and less, watching it handle things I used to think required my expertise.
Then on February 5th, two major AI labs released new models on the same day, GPT 5.3 Codex from OpenAI and Opus 4.6 from Anthropic, the makers of Claude, one of the main competitors to ChatGPT.
And something clicked, not like a light switch, more like the moment you realize the water has been rising around you and is now at your chest.
I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job.
I describe what I want built in plain English and it just appears.
Not a rough draft I need to fix.
The finished thing, I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours and come back to find the work done.
Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed.
A couple of months ago, I was going back and forth with the AI, guiding it, making edits.
Now I just describe the outcome and leave.
Let me give you an example so you can understand what this actually looks like in practice.
I’ll tell the AI, I want to build this app.
Here’s what it should do.
Here’s roughly what it should look like.
Figure out the user flow, the design, all of it.
And it does.
It writes tens of thousands of lines of code.
Then, and this is the part that would have been unthinkable a year ago, it opens the app itself.
It clicks through the buttons.
It tests the features.
It uses the app the way a person would.
If it doesn’t like how something looks or feels, it goes back and changes it on its own.
It iterates, like a developer would, fixing and refining until it’s satisfied.
Only once it has decided the app meets its own standards does it come back to me and say, it’s ready for you to test.
And when I test it, it’s usually perfect.
I’m not exaggerating.
That is what my Monday looked like this week.
But it was the model that was released last week, GPT 5.3 Codex, that shook me the most.
It wasn’t just executing my instructions.
It was making intelligent decisions.
It had something that felt, for the first time, like judgment, like taste.
The inexplicable sense of knowing what the right call is that people always said, A, I would never have.
This model has it, or something close enough that the distinction is starting not to matter.
I’ve always been early to adopt AI tools.
But the last few months have shocked me.
These new AI models aren’t incremental improvements.
This is a different thing entirely, and here’s why this matters to you, even if you don’t work in tech.
The AI labs made a deliberate choice.
They focused on making AI great at writing code first, because building AI requires a lot of code.
If AI can write that code, it can help build the next version of itself, a smarter version which writes better code, which builds an even smarter version.
Making AI great at coding was the strategy that unlocks everything else.
That’s why they did it first.
My job started changing before yours, not because they were targeting software engineers.
It was just a side effect of where they chose to aim first.
They’ve now done it, and they’re moving on to everything else.
The experience that tech workers have had over the past year of watching AI go from helpful tool to does my job better than I do is the experience everyone else is about to have.
Law, finance, medicine, accounting, consulting, writing, design, analysis, customer service.
Not in 10 years.
The people building these systems say one to five years.
Some say less.
And given what I’ve seen in just the last couple of months, I think less is more likely.
But I tried AI and it wasn’t that good.
I hear this constantly.
I understand it because it used to be true.
If you tried chat GPT in 2023 or early 2024 and thought, this makes stuff up or this isn’t that impressive, you were right.
Those early versions were genuinely limited.
They hallucinated.
They confidently said things that were nonsense.
That was two years ago.
In AI time, that is ancient history.
The models available today are unrecognizable from what existed even six months ago.
The debate about whether AI is really getting better or hitting a wall, which has been going on for over a year, is over.
It’s done.
Anyone still making that argument either hasn’t used the current models, has an incentive to downplay what’s happening, or is evaluating based on an experience from 2024 that is no longer relevant.
I don’t say that to be dismissive.
I say it because the gap between public perception and current reality is now enormous.
And that gap is dangerous because it’s preventing people from preparing.
Part of the problem is that most people are using the free version of AI tools.
The free version is over a year behind what paying users have access to.
Judging AI based on free tier chat GPT is like evaluating the state of smartphones by using a flip phone.
The people paying for the best tools and actually using them daily for real work know what’s coming.
I think of my friend who’s a lawyer.
I keep telling him to try using AI at his firm, and he keeps finding reasons it won’t work.
It’s not built for his specialty.
It made an error when he tested it.
It doesn’t understand the nuance of what he does.
And I get it, but I’ve had partners at major law firms reach out to me for advice because they’ve tried the current versions and they see where this is going.
One of them, the managing partner at a large firm, spends hours every day using AI.
He told me it’s like having a team of associates available instantly.
He’s not using it because it’s a toy.
He’s using it because it works.
And he told me something that stuck with me.
Every couple of months, it gets significantly more capable for his work.
He said if it stays on this trajectory, he expects it’ll be able to do most of what he does before long.
And he’s a managing partner with decades of experience.
He’s not panicking, but he’s paying very close attention.
The people who are ahead in their industries, the ones actually experimenting seriously, are not dismissing this.
They’re blown away by what it can already do, and they’re positioning themselves accordingly.
How fast this is actually moving.
Let me make the pace of improvement concrete, because I think this is the part that’s hardest to believe if you’re not watching it closely.
In 2022, AI couldn’t do basic arithmetic reliably.
It would confidently tell you that 7 times 8 equals 54.
By 2023, it could pass the bar exam.
By Work accordingly.
I don’t say that to stress you out.
I say it because right now there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this.
The person who walks into a meeting and says, I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days, is going to be the most valuable person in the room.
Not eventually.
Right now.
Learn these tools.
Get proficient.
Demonstrate what’s possible.
If you’re early enough, this is how you move up.
By being the person who understands what’s coming and can show others how to navigate it.
That window won’t stay open long.
Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it.
The managing partner at that law firm isn’t too proud to spend hours a day with AI.
He’s doing it specifically because he’s senior enough to understand what’s at stake.
The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage.
The ones who dismiss it as a fad.
Who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise.
Who assume their field is special and immune.
It’s not.
No field is.
Get your financial house in order.
I’m not a financial advisor and I’m not trying to scare you into anything drastic.
But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago.
Build up savings if you can.
Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed.
Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in.
Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.
Think about where you stand and lean into what’s hardest to replace.
Some things will take longer for AI to displace.
Relationships and trust built over years.
Work that requires physical presence.
Roles with licensed accountability.
Roles where someone still has to sign off, take legal responsibility, stand in a courtroom.
Industries with heavy regulatory hurdles.
Where adoption will be slowed by compliance, liability, and institutional inertia.
None of these are permanent shields, but they buy time.
And time right now is the most valuable thing you can have, as long as you use it to adapt, not to pretend this isn’t happening.
Rethink what you’re telling your kids.
The standard playbook.
Get good grades.
I say it because right now there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this.
The person who walks into a meeting and says, I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days is going to be the most valuable person in the room.
Not eventually.
Right now.
Learn these tools.
Get proficient.
Demonstrate what’s possible.
If you’re early enough, this is how you move up.
By being the person who understands what’s coming and can show others how to navigate it.
That window won’t stay open long.
Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it.
The managing partner at that law firm isn’t too proud to spend hours a day with AI.
He’s doing it specifically because he’s senior enough to understand what’s at stake.
The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage.
The ones who dismiss it as a fad.
Who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise.
Who assume their field is special and immune.
It’s not.
No field is.
Get your financial house in order.
I’m not a financial advisor and I’m not trying to scare you into anything drastic.
But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago.
Build up savings if you can.
Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed.
Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in.
Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.
Think about where you stand and lean into what’s hardest to replace.
Some things will take longer for AI to displace.
Relationships and trust built over years.
Work that requires physical presence.
Roles with licensed accountability.
Roles where someone still has to sign off, take legal responsibility, stand in a courtroom.
Industries with heavy regulatory hurdles.
Where adoption will be slowed by compliance, liability, and institutional inertia.
None of these are permanent shields, but they buy time.
And time right now is the most valuable thing you can have, as long as you use it to adapt, not to pretend this isn’t happening.
Rethink what you’re telling your kids.
The standard playbook.
Get good grades.
I say it because right now there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this.
The person who walks into a meeting and says, I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days is going to be the most valuable person in the room.
Not eventually.
Right now.
Learn these tools.
Get proficient.
Demonstrate what’s possible.
If you’re early enough, this is how you move up.
By being the person who understands what’s coming and can show others how to navigate it.
That window won’t stay open long.
Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it.
The managing partner at that law firm isn’t too proud to spend hours a day with AI.
He’s doing it specifically because he’s senior enough to understand what’s at stake.
The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage.
The ones who dismiss it as a fad.
Who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise.
Who assume their field is special and immune.
It’s not.
No field is.
Get your financial house in order.
I’m not a financial advisor and I’m not trying to scare you into anything drastic.
But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago.
Build up savings if you can.
Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed.
Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in.
Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.
Think about where you stand and lean into what’s hardest to replace.
Some things will take longer for AI to displace.
Relationships and trust built over years.
Work that requires physical presence.
Roles with licensed accountability.
Roles where someone still has to sign off, take legal responsibility, stand in a courtroom.
Industries with heavy regulatory hurdles.
Where adoption will be slowed by compliance, liability, and institutional inertia.
None of these are permanent shields, but they buy time.
And time right now is the most valuable thing you can have, as long as you use it to adapt, not to pretend this isn’t happening.
Rethink what you’re telling your kids.
The standard playbook.
Get good grades.
I say it because right now there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this.
The person who walks into a meeting and says, I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days is going to be the most valuable person in the room.
Not eventually.
Right now.
Learn these tools.
Get proficient.
Demonstrate what’s possible.
If you’re early enough, this is how you move up.
By being the person who understands what’s coming and can show others how to navigate it.
That window won’t stay open long.
Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it.
The managing partner at that law firm isn’t too proud to spend hours a day with AI.
He’s doing it specifically because he’s senior enough to understand what’s at stake.
The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage.
The ones who dismiss it as a fad.
Who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise.
Who assume their field is special and immune.
It’s not.
No field is.
Get your financial house in order.
I’m not a financial advisor and I’m not trying to scare you into anything drastic.
But if you believe, even partially, that the next few years could bring real disruption to your industry, then basic financial resilience matters more than it did a year ago.
Build up savings if you can.
Be cautious about taking on new debt that assumes your current income is guaranteed.
Think about whether your fixed expenses give you flexibility or lock you in.
Give yourself options if things move faster than you expect.
Think about where you stand and lean into what’s hardest to replace.
Some things will take longer for AI to displace.
Relationships and trust built over years.
Work that requires physical presence.
Roles with licensed accountability.
Roles where someone still has to sign off, take legal responsibility, stand in a courtroom.
Industries with heavy regulatory hurdles.
Where adoption will be slowed by compliance, liability, and institutional inertia.
None of these are permanent shields, but they buy time.
And time right now is the most valuable thing you can have, as long as you use it to adapt, not to pretend this isn’t happening.
Rethink what you’re telling your kids.
The standard playbook.
Get good grades.
I say it because right now there is a brief window where most people at most companies are still ignoring this.
The person who walks into a meeting and says, I used AI to do this analysis in an hour instead of three days is going to be the most valuable person in the room.
Not eventually.
Right now.
Learn these tools.
Get proficient.
Demonstrate what’s possible.
If you’re early enough, this is how you move up.
By being the person who understands what’s coming and can show others how to navigate it.
That window won’t stay open long.
Once everyone figures it out, the advantage disappears.
Have no ego about it.
The managing partner at that law firm isn’t too proud to spend hours a day with AI.
He’s doing it specifically because he’s senior enough to understand what’s at stake.
The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage.
The ones who dismiss it as a fad.
Who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise.
Who assume their field is special and immune.
It’s not.
No field is.
Get your financial house in order.
I’m not a financial advisor and I’m not trying to